For more than 70 million Americans, Social Security isn’t just a benefit—it’s a lifeline. And each year, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) determines just how far that lifeline will stretch.

The latest prediction for 2026 is in—and while it’s not zero, it’s far from the boost many were hoping for.



The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) just updated its early forecast:

Expected 2026 COLA: 2.4%

That’s slightly up from April’s 2.3% projection, but still below the 2.5% COLA already set for 2025.

For someone receiving the average Social Security check of $1,900 per month, a 2.4% increase would mean about $45 more each month—or roughly $540 a year.



Better than nothing? Absolutely.

But is it enough to keep pace with rising prices at the grocery store, pharmacy, or gas pump? That’s the real question.

It’s true: inflation is slowing down. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)—used to calculate COLA—rose just 2.1% over the past 12 months.

That’s good news for the economy. But it doesn’t mean prices are dropping—just that they’re not going up as fast.

“A 10 percent increase on prices followed by a much lower increase the following year is still an increase,” said Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group.

“Prices aren't coming down, just increasing more slowly."



Also read: Could tariffs boost or shrink your Social Security COLA?

If this new forecast feels underwhelming, you’re not imagining it.

Here’s how 2026’s estimated COLA compares to recent years:

• 2021: 1.3 %
• 2022: 5.9%
• 2023: 8.7%
• 2025: 2.5%
• 2026 (projected): 2.4%

The Social Security Administration finalizes the COLA each October, based on inflation data throughout the third quarter.

If prices go up during that window, so does your check. If they don’t, your benefits stay flat.

So far, trends suggest a modest increase for 2026—but the number could still change depending on inflation.



Also read: Will your benefits grow in 2026? Here’s the latest COLA update

Several key developments could shape the final COLA:

• Tariffs: New import tariffs could raise prices on household goods.
• Prescription Drug Policy: A recent executive order from President Trump aims to cap US drug prices by tying them to international benchmarks. If implemented, this could reduce some out-of-pocket costs—but legal pushback may delay it.
• Global Market Volatility: Trade and supply disruptions could cause inflation to spike again, which would directly impact your benefits.

A lower COLA doesn’t mean lower prices—just slower increases.

For retirees on fixed incomes, that means budgeting smarter, cutting unnecessary expenses, and finding new ways to stretch every dollar.

“While a COLA decrease may be viewed by some retirees as a bad thing, it's actually a good one for the overall future economic outlook,” said financial educator Alex Beene.

“The stabilization of COLA indicates that the pricing pressures of inflation are finally starting to [subside]. While seniors are undoubtedly still having to do more dollar counting than a few years ago, not having to dramatically increase beneficiary spending shows prices are stabilizing, even if they're still higher than they were five years ago.”

Read next: Reminder: Social Security COLA increase arrives on April 9—see if you're eligible!

Are you already adjusting your budget to account for rising prices? Do you think COLA should be based on a different measure—like the CPI-E (for elderly consumers)? Have you noticed prices going down—or are things still creeping up at your local store? Share your thoughts in the comments.