A Soviet spacecraft is falling to Earth — will it land closer than you think?
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A decades-old satellite is making an unexpected return — and scientists are watching closely
Where and when it crashes is a mystery — but here’s what experts are warning about
A piece of space history is hurtling back toward Earth, and no one can say exactly where it will land.
Kosmos 482, a Soviet satellite launched over 50 years ago, is now on an uncontrolled collision course with our planet.
Experts say the window for reentry is fast approaching — and though the odds of danger are low, they aren’t zero.
Launched in 1972 during the Cold War's space race, Kosmos 482 was meant to journey to Venus.
Instead, a malfunction left it stranded in Earth's orbit — where it's silently circled for more than 50 years.
Now, experts predict that the car-sized relic will reenter Earth's atmosphere between May 8 and May 11, with May 10 pinpointed as the most likely date.
Tracking Kosmos 482's exact reentry point remains nearly impossible. The spacecraft could land almost anywhere — a reminder that space debris doesn't follow tidy schedules or boundaries.
At nearly one ton and moving at speeds of 17,000 miles per hour, the capsule will transform into a blazing fireball as it plunges through the atmosphere.
Although most debris burns up before impact, the odds suggest parts of Kosmos 482 could survive and strike the surface — albeit at much slower speeds after atmospheric drag.
While the thought of a spacecraft falling from the sky sounds terrifying, experts like Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell emphasize that the chances of it injuring someone are extremely low.
“The chance that it hits a person is about one in 10,000,” McDowell said. “The chance that it hits you is then one in 10 billion.”
Still, if Kosmos 482 were to cause damage, Russia could be held legally liable under international space law — sparking not just cleanup efforts, but diplomatic consequences as well.
Kosmos 482 isn't alone. There are an estimated 3,000 dead satellites currently orbiting Earth, according to the European Space Agency. Incidents involving falling space debris are rare — but they’re happening more often.
With so much defunct hardware overhead, scientists are pushing for better "space junk management" — including ambitious plans for space garbage trucks to safely collect and deorbit hazardous debris before accidents happen.
Kosmos 482 is different from many other falling objects: it carries a heat shield designed to survive a crash landing on Venus.
Although the spacecraft never left Earth's orbit, the durable heat protection remains — increasing the chances that parts of the capsule could reach the ground mostly intact.
Read next:
Have you ever witnessed a meteor shower or worried about space debris? Join the conversation in the comments below — and let's discuss how humanity can better protect both our planet and our place among the stars.
Where and when it crashes is a mystery — but here’s what experts are warning about
A piece of space history is hurtling back toward Earth, and no one can say exactly where it will land.
Kosmos 482, a Soviet satellite launched over 50 years ago, is now on an uncontrolled collision course with our planet.
Experts say the window for reentry is fast approaching — and though the odds of danger are low, they aren’t zero.
Launched in 1972 during the Cold War's space race, Kosmos 482 was meant to journey to Venus.
Instead, a malfunction left it stranded in Earth's orbit — where it's silently circled for more than 50 years.
Now, experts predict that the car-sized relic will reenter Earth's atmosphere between May 8 and May 11, with May 10 pinpointed as the most likely date.
Tracking Kosmos 482's exact reentry point remains nearly impossible. The spacecraft could land almost anywhere — a reminder that space debris doesn't follow tidy schedules or boundaries.
At nearly one ton and moving at speeds of 17,000 miles per hour, the capsule will transform into a blazing fireball as it plunges through the atmosphere.
Although most debris burns up before impact, the odds suggest parts of Kosmos 482 could survive and strike the surface — albeit at much slower speeds after atmospheric drag.
While the thought of a spacecraft falling from the sky sounds terrifying, experts like Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell emphasize that the chances of it injuring someone are extremely low.
“The chance that it hits a person is about one in 10,000,” McDowell said. “The chance that it hits you is then one in 10 billion.”
Still, if Kosmos 482 were to cause damage, Russia could be held legally liable under international space law — sparking not just cleanup efforts, but diplomatic consequences as well.
Kosmos 482 isn't alone. There are an estimated 3,000 dead satellites currently orbiting Earth, according to the European Space Agency. Incidents involving falling space debris are rare — but they’re happening more often.
With so much defunct hardware overhead, scientists are pushing for better "space junk management" — including ambitious plans for space garbage trucks to safely collect and deorbit hazardous debris before accidents happen.
Kosmos 482 is different from many other falling objects: it carries a heat shield designed to survive a crash landing on Venus.
Although the spacecraft never left Earth's orbit, the durable heat protection remains — increasing the chances that parts of the capsule could reach the ground mostly intact.
Read next:
- From zero gravity to hard reality: NASA astronauts face new challenges on Earth
- Stranded in orbit: How spacecraft issues left NASA astronauts adrift—their harrowing journey back to Earth
