Could immigration policy changes affect your Social Security benefits sooner than expected?
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You’ve likely heard that Social Security is facing long-term financial challenges.
While many point to an aging population as the main cause, recent analysis shows that immigration policy may also play a role.
In particular, changes involving unauthorized immigration could affect how long the program’s trust fund lasts.
The connection isn’t always obvious, but it could have real implications for those nearing or already in retirement.
Here’s what the data shows, what experts are saying, and why it matters for Americans over 60.
The Social Security trust fund is running out of time
According to current projections, Social Security’s main trust funds will be depleted by 2034.
If Congress doesn’t act by then, benefits would be automatically reduced by about 19%.
That’s a major concern for the millions of Americans—especially retirees—who rely on those checks to cover essentials.
But a recent analysis by the Penn-Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) adds a new twist: efforts to reduce the number of unauthorized immigrants in the US could accelerate the timeline for insolvency.
Also read: Is Trump's immigration crackdown forcing American elderly into crisis? Find out how
The surprising role of unauthorized immigrants
You might not expect it, but unauthorized immigrants are helping to prop up Social Security.
In 2024 alone, they contributed roughly $24 billion in payroll taxes.
Because most are ineligible for benefits, their contributions go into the system without drawing anything out.
That financial support helps keep the program running for current and future retirees.
Also read: Trump’s new immigration strategy offers $1,000 for those who choose to leave—here’s how it works
What happens if deportations ramp up?
The PWBM modeled three different scenarios:
To cover that shortfall, the average US household would need to pay an extra $180 in payroll taxes starting in 2025—with that number increasing each year.
Also read: Trump’s “big, beautiful” budget: What it means for taxes, seniors, and immigration
Why fewer workers means more strain
It’s simple: Social Security depends on payroll taxes from today’s workers to pay today’s retirees.
Reducing the number of working contributors—like unauthorized immigrants—means less revenue and more pressure on the system.
Since these workers contribute billions while typically receiving no benefits, their presence helps delay funding problems.
Also read: SNAP rules get an overhaul—Here’s what to know.
Legal immigration also plays a key role
It’s not just unauthorized immigrants.
Legal immigration is also considered by many experts to be essential to the system’s long-term health.
A recent report from the conservative group Unleash Prosperity highlights how immigrants have contributed to workforce and economic growth:
Legal immigrants often arrive in their working years, start businesses at high rates, and raise children who go on to earn more and contribute heavily to the economy.
According to economist Stephen Moore, "Immigrants tend to be net contributors to the public fiscal because they pay payroll taxes but they don’t have parents who collect benefits. Their children pay for their benefits."
Also read: The $5,108 Social Security check: who qualifies and how?
The demographic squeeze
As the US population ages, some economists and policy analysts believe a well-structured legal immigration strategy could act as a “demographic safety valve.”
By bringing in more working-age people, immigration may help offset the growing number of retirees and ease long-term pressure on Social Security.
Also read: Avoid these common Social Security mistakes—and make the most of your retirement benefits
What does this mean for older Americans?
If you’re over 60, you’ve likely paid into Social Security your entire working life.
Naturally, you want to know the system will be there when you need it.
While immigration policy is a complex and often debated issue, recent studies suggest it could have a more direct effect on Social Security funding than many people realize.
Social Security’s future is shaped by many factors, and immigration policy is one piece of the puzzle.
Staying informed helps ensure you’re part of the conversation as decisions are made that could impact your benefits.
Read next: Retirees on edge with “real and growing” anxiety about Social Security
Immigration policy affects many aspects of American life, and Social Security is just one part of that picture. What do you think—should policymakers factor in Social Security when debating immigration reform? Do you have concerns about the future of your benefits?
We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed and connected helps us all make sense of these big-picture issues—together.
While many point to an aging population as the main cause, recent analysis shows that immigration policy may also play a role.
In particular, changes involving unauthorized immigration could affect how long the program’s trust fund lasts.
The connection isn’t always obvious, but it could have real implications for those nearing or already in retirement.
Here’s what the data shows, what experts are saying, and why it matters for Americans over 60.
Immigration policy decisions may have unexpected effects on the future of Social Security. Image Source: YouTube / 12 News.
The Social Security trust fund is running out of time
According to current projections, Social Security’s main trust funds will be depleted by 2034.
If Congress doesn’t act by then, benefits would be automatically reduced by about 19%.
That’s a major concern for the millions of Americans—especially retirees—who rely on those checks to cover essentials.
But a recent analysis by the Penn-Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) adds a new twist: efforts to reduce the number of unauthorized immigrants in the US could accelerate the timeline for insolvency.
Also read: Is Trump's immigration crackdown forcing American elderly into crisis? Find out how
The surprising role of unauthorized immigrants
You might not expect it, but unauthorized immigrants are helping to prop up Social Security.
In 2024 alone, they contributed roughly $24 billion in payroll taxes.
Because most are ineligible for benefits, their contributions go into the system without drawing anything out.
That financial support helps keep the program running for current and future retirees.
Also read: Trump’s new immigration strategy offers $1,000 for those who choose to leave—here’s how it works
What happens if deportations ramp up?
The PWBM modeled three different scenarios:
- Moderate crackdown (4 years): Deporting 10% of unauthorized immigrants each year for four years would shorten the trust fund’s lifespan by six months, costing the program $73 billion over a decade and $218 billion over 30 years.
- Long-term effort (10 years): Deporting 10% annually for a decade would lead to losses of $133 billion over 10 years and $656 billion over 30 years.
- Complete removal and shutdown of illegal immigration: This would remove all unauthorized immigrants over a decade, costing the system $884 billion over 30 years.
To cover that shortfall, the average US household would need to pay an extra $180 in payroll taxes starting in 2025—with that number increasing each year.
Also read: Trump’s “big, beautiful” budget: What it means for taxes, seniors, and immigration
Why fewer workers means more strain
It’s simple: Social Security depends on payroll taxes from today’s workers to pay today’s retirees.
Reducing the number of working contributors—like unauthorized immigrants—means less revenue and more pressure on the system.
Since these workers contribute billions while typically receiving no benefits, their presence helps delay funding problems.
Also read: SNAP rules get an overhaul—Here’s what to know.
Legal immigration also plays a key role
It’s not just unauthorized immigrants.
Legal immigration is also considered by many experts to be essential to the system’s long-term health.
A recent report from the conservative group Unleash Prosperity highlights how immigrants have contributed to workforce and economic growth:
- Nearly 48% of US workforce growth from 2013 to 2023 came from immigrants.
- Close to half of all Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children.
- Three CEOs of major tech companies—Tesla, Nvidia, and Google—are immigrants or second-generation Americans.
Legal immigrants often arrive in their working years, start businesses at high rates, and raise children who go on to earn more and contribute heavily to the economy.
According to economist Stephen Moore, "Immigrants tend to be net contributors to the public fiscal because they pay payroll taxes but they don’t have parents who collect benefits. Their children pay for their benefits."
Also read: The $5,108 Social Security check: who qualifies and how?
The demographic squeeze
As the US population ages, some economists and policy analysts believe a well-structured legal immigration strategy could act as a “demographic safety valve.”
By bringing in more working-age people, immigration may help offset the growing number of retirees and ease long-term pressure on Social Security.
Also read: Avoid these common Social Security mistakes—and make the most of your retirement benefits
What does this mean for older Americans?
If you’re over 60, you’ve likely paid into Social Security your entire working life.
Naturally, you want to know the system will be there when you need it.
While immigration policy is a complex and often debated issue, recent studies suggest it could have a more direct effect on Social Security funding than many people realize.
Social Security’s future is shaped by many factors, and immigration policy is one piece of the puzzle.
Staying informed helps ensure you’re part of the conversation as decisions are made that could impact your benefits.
Read next: Retirees on edge with “real and growing” anxiety about Social Security
Immigration policy affects many aspects of American life, and Social Security is just one part of that picture. What do you think—should policymakers factor in Social Security when debating immigration reform? Do you have concerns about the future of your benefits?
We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed and connected helps us all make sense of these big-picture issues—together.
