Millions of lives at risk: Global HIV progress threatened by alarming budget cuts
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For years, the world has made meaningful strides in a critical global health battle.
But a new report is raising serious concerns about what could come next.
If certain changes take effect, the consequences may be far-reaching—and deeply alarming.
Experts warn that millions could be impacted if key support systems begin to fall away.
According to projections published in The Lancet HIV, slashing international funding could lead to 4.4 to 10.8 million new infections by 2030—and up to 2.9 million deaths in low- and middle-income countries.
These are not abstract figures—they represent parents, children, and families who depend on global health support to survive.
Researchers analyzed the potential impact of funding reductions across 26 countries that currently rely on foreign aid for HIV prevention and treatment.
From Colombia and Cambodia to South Africa and Sri Lanka, these nations have made measurable strides thanks to support from donor governments.
But that support is now in jeopardy.
Five countries—the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands—provide over 90% of international HIV funding.
The United States alone contributed $5.71 billion in 2023, making up nearly three-quarters of the total.
Such cuts would be catastrophic, dismantling the infrastructure that has kept HIV-related deaths and new infections in decline for years.
One major target of these reductions is PEPFAR (The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), launched in 2003 under President George W. Bush.
PEPFAR has invested over $100 billion, saving countless lives through antiretroviral therapy, testing, and prevention programs.
But with recent decisions to pull funding, including by the US, key services have already been disrupted in several countries.
Experts warn this could trigger a sharp resurgence in cases, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—home to some of the hardest-hit populations.
"The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programs have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing," said Debra ten Brink, co-lead author of the study from Australia’s Burnet Institute.
Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled. It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic, which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally," said ten Brink.
The UNAIDS organization has echoed this alarm.
Executive Director Winnie Byanyima warned that millions who rely on lifesaving HIV programs are already being affected.
“It is reasonable for the United States to want to reduce its funding over time, but the sudden withdrawal of lifesaving support is having a devastating impact,” she said, "we urge for a reconsideration and an urgent restoration of services — lifesaving services."
Have you or someone you know been affected by HIV/AIDS? Do you believe donor nations should reconsider these funding cuts? Share your thoughts below—and let’s raise our collective voice to demand that progress, compassion, and global responsibility aren’t abandoned.
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But a new report is raising serious concerns about what could come next.
If certain changes take effect, the consequences may be far-reaching—and deeply alarming.
Experts warn that millions could be impacted if key support systems begin to fall away.
According to projections published in The Lancet HIV, slashing international funding could lead to 4.4 to 10.8 million new infections by 2030—and up to 2.9 million deaths in low- and middle-income countries.
These are not abstract figures—they represent parents, children, and families who depend on global health support to survive.
Experts warn that millions could be impacted if key support systems begin to fall away. Image source: Newzroom Afrika / YouTube
Researchers analyzed the potential impact of funding reductions across 26 countries that currently rely on foreign aid for HIV prevention and treatment.
From Colombia and Cambodia to South Africa and Sri Lanka, these nations have made measurable strides thanks to support from donor governments.
But that support is now in jeopardy.
Five countries—the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands—provide over 90% of international HIV funding.
The United States alone contributed $5.71 billion in 2023, making up nearly three-quarters of the total.
Now, some of these donor countries have signaled aid cuts ranging from 8% to 70% for 2025–2026.Such cuts would be catastrophic, dismantling the infrastructure that has kept HIV-related deaths and new infections in decline for years.
One major target of these reductions is PEPFAR (The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), launched in 2003 under President George W. Bush.
PEPFAR has invested over $100 billion, saving countless lives through antiretroviral therapy, testing, and prevention programs.
But with recent decisions to pull funding, including by the US, key services have already been disrupted in several countries.
Experts warn this could trigger a sharp resurgence in cases, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—home to some of the hardest-hit populations.
"The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programs have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing," said Debra ten Brink, co-lead author of the study from Australia’s Burnet Institute.
Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled. It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic, which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally," said ten Brink.
The UNAIDS organization has echoed this alarm.
Executive Director Winnie Byanyima warned that millions who rely on lifesaving HIV programs are already being affected.
“It is reasonable for the United States to want to reduce its funding over time, but the sudden withdrawal of lifesaving support is having a devastating impact,” she said, "we urge for a reconsideration and an urgent restoration of services — lifesaving services."
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