Social Security at 90: Trump administration proposals could reshape retirement for millions
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Social Security turned 90 years old this year, but questions remain about how long the program can remain fully funded.
The Trump administration has promised to protect benefits while also pursuing tax and policy changes that could reshape the program.
Experts say some of these reforms may strengthen retirement security, while others risk accelerating the program’s financial challenges.
With more than 74 million people receiving monthly payments, any shift could have a lasting impact on retirees and future beneficiaries.
President Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to “always defending Social Security” in a proclamation celebrating the program’s 90th anniversary. At the same time, he emphasized plans to root out “fraud, waste, and abuse” to make the system more efficient.
Still, analysts remain divided on whether his policies will protect or undermine the program. Some warn that changes could bring retirees less financial certainty in the years ahead.
The Social Security retirement trust fund is projected to run out in 2033. After that, beneficiaries may only receive 77% of their scheduled payments.
Experts note that possible solutions include raising the retirement age, increasing payroll taxes, or reducing benefits. However, Trump has pledged not to cut benefits or raise the retirement age.
Trump’s tax proposals are among the most closely watched policies tied to Social Security’s future. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was made permanent this summer through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, costing an estimated $5 trillion over time.
The Brookings Institution noted that redirecting such funds could keep Social Security solvent for another 75 years. While retirees may save at tax time, critics say high earners and businesses are the biggest beneficiaries.
Another proposal centers on eliminating income taxes on Social Security benefits. Currently, about 40% of recipients pay taxes on up to 85% of their payments.
Because that revenue goes back into the trust fund, ending the tax could hasten insolvency. Martha Shedden of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts said, “It’s a disadvantage to the system as a whole.”
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also introduced a $6,000 “bonus deduction” for seniors 65 and older. Trump claimed this fulfilled his pledge to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, but the deduction is not directly tied to the program.
As a result, many retirees may continue to pay income taxes on part of their benefits. Analysts say this creates confusion for those expecting relief.
Trump has also promoted eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay. He has declared, “Your tips will be 100% yours” and “Your overtime hours will be tax-free.”
Experts caution that this could reduce funds going into Social Security and lower future retirement benefits, since those earnings would not count toward the benefit calculation.
While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provided partial deductions on tipped and overtime income, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare still apply.
Also read: Social Security benefits could soon be easier to understand under Rep. Smucker’s new bill
Beyond retirement checks, health care could be affected by Trump’s policies. Medicare provides coverage for older Americans and people with disabilities, while Medicaid supports low-income households, including about 7.2 million seniors.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates Medicaid could lose up to $1 trillion in federal funding over the next decade under the OBBA. States would then face higher costs, which could reduce long-term care access for seniors.
Drug prices are another area of focus. While former President Joe Biden expanded measures to lower out-of-pocket costs, Trump ended some experimental programs, such as $2 copays for certain generic drugs.
Experts say the administration has expressed support for policies to reduce costs, but many details remain unclear. Retirees could feel the effects if cost reductions are scaled back.
Also read: Big Social Security changes are coming in 2026—here’s what to know now
Other economic policies could indirectly influence Social Security. Trump’s use of tariffs has raised concerns about higher consumer prices. Javier Palomarez of the United States Hispanic Business Council said tariffs can work as negotiation tools but may also drive up costs. For seniors on fixed incomes, even annual cost-of-living adjustments may not keep up with rising expenses.
Immigration policy also ties into Social Security’s financial health. Undocumented workers currently contribute about $26 billion a year in Social Security taxes. Large-scale deportations, analysts warn, could accelerate the program’s insolvency by removing this revenue stream.
The agricultural sector may also face supply and labor challenges, which could push food prices higher. On the other hand, a stronger economy could improve retirement security. Trump’s first term saw the S&P 500 climb 68% despite pandemic pressures.
Supporters argue that pro-growth policies, tax cuts, and deregulation could boost retirement accounts. However, recent reports of a slowing job market leave questions about whether these gains can be sustained.
Read next: Could your retirement plans handle a 24% Social Security cut in 2032?
Do you think these policies will protect or put Social Security at greater risk? How do you feel about changes that could affect retirement income and health care costs? Would you support higher taxes or reduced benefits if it meant keeping Social Security solvent longer?
The Trump administration has promised to protect benefits while also pursuing tax and policy changes that could reshape the program.
Experts say some of these reforms may strengthen retirement security, while others risk accelerating the program’s financial challenges.
With more than 74 million people receiving monthly payments, any shift could have a lasting impact on retirees and future beneficiaries.
President Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to “always defending Social Security” in a proclamation celebrating the program’s 90th anniversary. At the same time, he emphasized plans to root out “fraud, waste, and abuse” to make the system more efficient.
Still, analysts remain divided on whether his policies will protect or undermine the program. Some warn that changes could bring retirees less financial certainty in the years ahead.
The Social Security retirement trust fund is projected to run out in 2033. After that, beneficiaries may only receive 77% of their scheduled payments.
Experts note that possible solutions include raising the retirement age, increasing payroll taxes, or reducing benefits. However, Trump has pledged not to cut benefits or raise the retirement age.
Trump’s tax proposals are among the most closely watched policies tied to Social Security’s future. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was made permanent this summer through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, costing an estimated $5 trillion over time.
The Brookings Institution noted that redirecting such funds could keep Social Security solvent for another 75 years. While retirees may save at tax time, critics say high earners and businesses are the biggest beneficiaries.
Another proposal centers on eliminating income taxes on Social Security benefits. Currently, about 40% of recipients pay taxes on up to 85% of their payments.
Because that revenue goes back into the trust fund, ending the tax could hasten insolvency. Martha Shedden of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts said, “It’s a disadvantage to the system as a whole.”
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also introduced a $6,000 “bonus deduction” for seniors 65 and older. Trump claimed this fulfilled his pledge to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, but the deduction is not directly tied to the program.
As a result, many retirees may continue to pay income taxes on part of their benefits. Analysts say this creates confusion for those expecting relief.
Trump has also promoted eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay. He has declared, “Your tips will be 100% yours” and “Your overtime hours will be tax-free.”
Experts caution that this could reduce funds going into Social Security and lower future retirement benefits, since those earnings would not count toward the benefit calculation.
While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provided partial deductions on tipped and overtime income, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare still apply.
Also read: Social Security benefits could soon be easier to understand under Rep. Smucker’s new bill
Beyond retirement checks, health care could be affected by Trump’s policies. Medicare provides coverage for older Americans and people with disabilities, while Medicaid supports low-income households, including about 7.2 million seniors.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates Medicaid could lose up to $1 trillion in federal funding over the next decade under the OBBA. States would then face higher costs, which could reduce long-term care access for seniors.
Drug prices are another area of focus. While former President Joe Biden expanded measures to lower out-of-pocket costs, Trump ended some experimental programs, such as $2 copays for certain generic drugs.
Experts say the administration has expressed support for policies to reduce costs, but many details remain unclear. Retirees could feel the effects if cost reductions are scaled back.
Also read: Big Social Security changes are coming in 2026—here’s what to know now
Other economic policies could indirectly influence Social Security. Trump’s use of tariffs has raised concerns about higher consumer prices. Javier Palomarez of the United States Hispanic Business Council said tariffs can work as negotiation tools but may also drive up costs. For seniors on fixed incomes, even annual cost-of-living adjustments may not keep up with rising expenses.
Immigration policy also ties into Social Security’s financial health. Undocumented workers currently contribute about $26 billion a year in Social Security taxes. Large-scale deportations, analysts warn, could accelerate the program’s insolvency by removing this revenue stream.
The agricultural sector may also face supply and labor challenges, which could push food prices higher. On the other hand, a stronger economy could improve retirement security. Trump’s first term saw the S&P 500 climb 68% despite pandemic pressures.
Supporters argue that pro-growth policies, tax cuts, and deregulation could boost retirement accounts. However, recent reports of a slowing job market leave questions about whether these gains can be sustained.
Read next: Could your retirement plans handle a 24% Social Security cut in 2032?
