Something is happening at the border—and it’s already hitting some travel businesses where it hurts.

Canadian travelers are pulling back from visiting the US, and it’s not just about vacation plans.

Behind the drop is a growing sense of tension, patriotism, and payback. Could this be the start of a long-term shift in cross-border travel?

The tariff tango and what’s really at stake​

The US has long relied on Canadian travelers to boost local economies—especially in popular tourism towns near the border.

But a wave of retaliatory sentiment may now be changing that. After the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Canada responded with its own economic measures and a growing “buy Canadian” push from leadership.

Bookings from Canada to the US have reportedly plunged by over 70% through September, according to aviation analyst OAG.

And that’s not all—Canada also excluded Tesla vehicles from its electric vehicle rebate program and announced C$155 billion in retaliatory tariffs.

Fewer visitors, bigger losses​

This isn’t just a diplomatic back-and-forth—it's an economic alarm bell.

A 10% drop in Canadian tourism alone could wipe out $2.1 billion in revenue and put 140,000 US jobs at risk, says the US Travel Association.

A 30% drop could balloon that loss to $6 billion.

Stats Canada reports a 32% drop in Canadian road trips to the US in March 2025 compared to the year prior—and a 13.5% drop in air travelers.

While these numbers reflect a current climate of uncertainty, experts warn the trend could snowball into long-term change.

More than money: the mood has shifted​

University of Waterloo professor Bryan S. R. Grimwood says Canadian travel habits are shifting not just because of tariffs, but due to broader concerns about safety, sovereignty, and national pride.

"In my read of the situation, the decline in Canadian travel to the US is a function of three interrelated things: (1) an uncertainty about visiting the US due to potential safety concerns and inconvenience (e.g., at the border); (2) a refusal to spend travel dollars in the US as a response to the Trump administration's intimidation tactics relating to trade, border security, and sovereignty; and (3) a rise in Canadian patriotism that is translating into a choice to support Canadian businesses, services, and products," he said.

"I do think the decline in Canadian travel to the US is significant for relations between the two countries. My sense though is that Canadians continue to cherish and respect the American people – as our government leaders have consistently expressed – and that the current moment is a reaction specifically to the Trump administration's approach."

Unifor President Lana Payne echoed that sentiment, warning that the US risks damaging its relationship with one of its closest allies—one tourist at a time.

What this means for American travel businesses​

Whether this is a passing chill or a lasting freeze, it’s a moment of reckoning.

From small family-run inns to large resort chains, businesses that depend on cross-border traffic may need to rethink how they engage with international customers.

Exploring alternative markets, adapting promotions, or simply preparing for a longer recovery window may become essential steps for staying afloat in the months ahead.

More like this:

• Trade tensions rise between US and Canada—tariff decisions pending
• Tariff plan paused—Trump steps back after market chaos shakes investors

Are you a business owner who’s already feeling the effects of fewer Canadian tourists? Have you changed your travel habits because of rising tensions or tariffs? We want to hear how this story is showing up in your life. Drop your thoughts, insights, or questions in the comments below—and let’s navigate this together as a community.