Will your benefits grow in 2026? Here’s the latest COLA update
- Replies 2
As the golden years approach, many Americans look forward to the peace of mind that Social Security benefits can bring.
But with the cost of living constantly on the rise, it's crucial to stay informed about the changes that could affect your financial future.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 could be expected to rise by 2.3% compared to 2025, based on the latest estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).
This revised projection follows the Trump administration’s recent announcement of sweeping tariffs on imported goods—though some of those measures were temporarily halted on Wednesday.
Why It Matters To You
The COLA impacts over 70 million Americans who rely on Social Security and Supplemental Security Income. It’s designed to help recipients keep up with inflation and maintain their buying power.
However, when inflation stems from major policy shifts like tariffs, certain prices may increase faster than the COLA adjustment can account for—ultimately reducing its real-world value.
What You Should Know
TSCL has raised its projected COLA for 2026 to 2.3 percent, marking a slight increase of 0.1 percent compared to last month’s forecast.
The group’s monthly projection is based on a proprietary model that factors in key economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W), Federal Reserve interest rates, and national unemployment rates.
The current estimate is based on CPI-W data from March 2025.
However, inflation linked to the April tariff announcements is expected to start reflecting in later CPI-W reports, which TSCL will use to refine future estimates.
At 2.3 percent, the forecasted 2026 COLA comes in slightly lower than the 2.5 percent increase in 2025, raising concerns that seniors may lose purchasing power, especially with the added pressure of tariffs introduced by the Trump administration—many of which remain paused for now.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton cautioned about the consequences of widespread import taxes on older Americans.
“Placing broad-based tariffs on goods from numerous countries could have a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors, including the costs of drugs and medical equipment that many seniors rely on,” Benton said.
“It is also highly likely that import taxes will keep food prices high, increase auto insurance costs, and contribute to higher inflation, among other effects,” she added.
The organization warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to drive up costs for medical care and prescription drugs, placing an especially heavy burden on older Americans.
A study by the Journal of the American Medical Association projected that these new import taxes could impact as many as 400 drug products from Canada, with an even larger number potentially affected from China, India, and Mexico.
Trump previously stated that his administration intends to introduce tariffs on imports from over 180 countries, including a 10 percent “baseline” tariff on all imported goods.
In response to criticism from within his own party and advisers, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the policy and introduced a lower reciprocal tariff rate of 10 percent.
Also read: Are your Social Security benefits at risk? Find out why fear is spreading nationwide.
How these decisions will influence broader inflation—which is a major driver of annual Social Security COLA adjustments—remains uncertain.
In a statement, TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton expressed cautious support for Trump’s overall aims, while warning of the risks to older Americans.
She said, "While TSCL supports President Trump's goals of returning manufacturing and strategic production to American shores, we can't accept the short-term consequences for seniors. We call on the administration to immediately make exceptions to the tariffs for drugs, medical equipment, and essential everyday goods that many seniors already struggle to afford."
Source: MSNBC / Youtube.
Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, echoed concerns about inflation, "The COLA prediction is rising specifically on the back of tariffs and the possible increase in pricing. Since inflation is based on a basket of goods and/or services, the inevitable impact of tariffs will need to be taken into account to accurately predict the possible rise in future prices."
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor at the University of Tennessee at Martin, pointed out how older adults may be disproportionately affected by rising costs.
"While seniors may not be the first age group most would link to having financial issues through tariffs, the reality is they could be some of the hardest hit. Seniors may not be buying the latest iPhone, but they often need additional technology for healthcare and wellcare later in life that are either fully created or have parts that come from many countries that just had a 10 percent tariff applied to them.
He remarked, "Combine that with talk of adding tariffs on pharmaceuticals, as well, and you can see what cost of living adjustments could soar higher for different programs in the coming year."
Read next: Unexpected freeze on Social Security changes—Here’s how it can affect you
What Should You Expect Next
TSCL will continue updating its monthly COLA forecasts, taking into account ongoing inflation and economic conditions. The next projection, based on April 2025 CPI-W data, is expected to reflect more of the early impact from tariff changes.
"Much of what the final number will [still be centered] on the final tariff amounts that will be implemented after the 90-day pause," Beene added.
Do you have tips for managing the rising cost of living? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below!
But with the cost of living constantly on the rise, it's crucial to stay informed about the changes that could affect your financial future.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 could be expected to rise by 2.3% compared to 2025, based on the latest estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).
This revised projection follows the Trump administration’s recent announcement of sweeping tariffs on imported goods—though some of those measures were temporarily halted on Wednesday.
Why It Matters To You
The COLA impacts over 70 million Americans who rely on Social Security and Supplemental Security Income. It’s designed to help recipients keep up with inflation and maintain their buying power.
However, when inflation stems from major policy shifts like tariffs, certain prices may increase faster than the COLA adjustment can account for—ultimately reducing its real-world value.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has updated the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 to a 2.3 percent increase from the previous year. Image source: Tierra Mallorca / Unsplash.
What You Should Know
TSCL has raised its projected COLA for 2026 to 2.3 percent, marking a slight increase of 0.1 percent compared to last month’s forecast.
The group’s monthly projection is based on a proprietary model that factors in key economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W), Federal Reserve interest rates, and national unemployment rates.
The current estimate is based on CPI-W data from March 2025.
However, inflation linked to the April tariff announcements is expected to start reflecting in later CPI-W reports, which TSCL will use to refine future estimates.
At 2.3 percent, the forecasted 2026 COLA comes in slightly lower than the 2.5 percent increase in 2025, raising concerns that seniors may lose purchasing power, especially with the added pressure of tariffs introduced by the Trump administration—many of which remain paused for now.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton cautioned about the consequences of widespread import taxes on older Americans.
“Placing broad-based tariffs on goods from numerous countries could have a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors, including the costs of drugs and medical equipment that many seniors rely on,” Benton said.
“It is also highly likely that import taxes will keep food prices high, increase auto insurance costs, and contribute to higher inflation, among other effects,” she added.
The increase reflects concerns about the impact of tariffs announced by the Trump administration, which could cause inflation and reduce the purchasing power of social security recipients. Image source: Ryan Quintal / Unsplash.
The organization warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to drive up costs for medical care and prescription drugs, placing an especially heavy burden on older Americans.
A study by the Journal of the American Medical Association projected that these new import taxes could impact as many as 400 drug products from Canada, with an even larger number potentially affected from China, India, and Mexico.
Trump previously stated that his administration intends to introduce tariffs on imports from over 180 countries, including a 10 percent “baseline” tariff on all imported goods.
In response to criticism from within his own party and advisers, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the policy and introduced a lower reciprocal tariff rate of 10 percent.
Also read: Are your Social Security benefits at risk? Find out why fear is spreading nationwide.
How these decisions will influence broader inflation—which is a major driver of annual Social Security COLA adjustments—remains uncertain.
In a statement, TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton expressed cautious support for Trump’s overall aims, while warning of the risks to older Americans.
She said, "While TSCL supports President Trump's goals of returning manufacturing and strategic production to American shores, we can't accept the short-term consequences for seniors. We call on the administration to immediately make exceptions to the tariffs for drugs, medical equipment, and essential everyday goods that many seniors already struggle to afford."
Source: MSNBC / Youtube.
Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, echoed concerns about inflation, "The COLA prediction is rising specifically on the back of tariffs and the possible increase in pricing. Since inflation is based on a basket of goods and/or services, the inevitable impact of tariffs will need to be taken into account to accurately predict the possible rise in future prices."
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor at the University of Tennessee at Martin, pointed out how older adults may be disproportionately affected by rising costs.
"While seniors may not be the first age group most would link to having financial issues through tariffs, the reality is they could be some of the hardest hit. Seniors may not be buying the latest iPhone, but they often need additional technology for healthcare and wellcare later in life that are either fully created or have parts that come from many countries that just had a 10 percent tariff applied to them.
He remarked, "Combine that with talk of adding tariffs on pharmaceuticals, as well, and you can see what cost of living adjustments could soar higher for different programs in the coming year."
Read next: Unexpected freeze on Social Security changes—Here’s how it can affect you
What Should You Expect Next
TSCL will continue updating its monthly COLA forecasts, taking into account ongoing inflation and economic conditions. The next projection, based on April 2025 CPI-W data, is expected to reflect more of the early impact from tariff changes.
"Much of what the final number will [still be centered] on the final tariff amounts that will be implemented after the 90-day pause," Beene added.
Do you have tips for managing the rising cost of living? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below!
