Each year, millions of older Americans look to the Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) to help keep up with rising expenses.

That annual increase can make a meaningful difference in how far your benefits stretch—from paying for groceries to covering prescriptions and utilities.

But the latest COLA forecast for 2026 is giving many seniors pause.

According to new data from one of the country’s leading senior advocacy groups, the expected increase could be the smallest in years—and for those on fixed incomes, that’s cause for concern.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is now projecting a 2.4% COLA for 2026.

That’s up slightly from last month’s estimate of 2.3%, but still lower than the 2.5% increase expected for 2025—and well below the record COLAs of recent years.

During the pandemic, inflation led to much larger increases: 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023.

If TSCL’s prediction holds, 2026 would bring the smallest cost-of-living adjustment since 2021, when the COLA was just 1.3%.

Many retirees rely on Social Security for the majority of their income, making even small changes to annual COLA increases especially impactful. Image Source: Pexels / Photo By: Kaboompics.com.

Seniors say it’s not enough​

A recent TSCL Senior Survey shows the vast majority of retirees are not satisfied with current or projected increases.

According to the poll:

• 94% said the 2025 COLA of 2.5% was too low
• Only 5% thought the amount was fair
• Just 1% believed it was too high

“Our research puts numbers to what seniors have been telling us for years,” said Shannon Benton, Executive Director of TSCL.

“Social Security benefits aren’t keeping up with inflation, inadequate COLAs are to blame, and seniors aren’t happy with Congress’s failure to act.”

Also read: Could tariffs boost or shrink your Social Security COLA?​

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The impact on retirees​

COLAs are meant to help benefits keep pace with inflation.

However, many advocates argue that the current method of calculating these adjustments doesn’t fully reflect the rising costs seniors face—particularly for essentials like healthcare and housing.

“If our predictions come true and the 2026 COLA comes in at the lowest we’ve seen since 2021, seniors will face additional pressure at a time when they’re already strained financially,” Benton said.

TSCL research shows that 73% of seniors rely on Social Security for at least half of their income.

For 39%, it’s their only source of income.

A smaller COLA can mean difficult decisions about which bills to pay—and when.

Also read: Nearly 1 million retirees wait as Social Security holds back promised extra payments​

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Why COLAs lag behind​

The current method for calculating Social Security’s annual increase relies on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

But critics say this doesn’t reflect the true costs that retirees face.

Many advocates have called for switching to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which focuses on senior spending patterns, especially healthcare.

So far, Congress has not adopted this change.

What you can do right now​

While you can’t control the COLA, you can take steps to protect your financial stability:

1. Review your monthly budget: Look for areas to reduce costs or prioritize must-haves.
2. Check for assistance programs: You may qualify for help with food, prescriptions, or utilities. Contact your local Area Agency on Aging.
3. Speak up: Let your representatives know that Social Security and Medicare reform matter. According to TSCL, 93% of seniors believe these should be a high or top priority for lawmakers.
4. Stay informed: Follow trusted sources for news on benefits, policy changes, and retirement planning. Awareness is key.

With more than 55.8 million Americans receiving Social Security, the pressure on Congress continues to grow.

Whether that turns into real change remains to be seen.

In the meantime, seniors are encouraged to stay proactive, stay engaged, and support one another.

Read next: What’s happening with Social Security? Many seniors aren’t feeling reassured

Key Takeaways

• The Senior Citizens League projects the 2026 Social Security COLA will be 2.4%, the lowest increase since 2021.
• TSCL polling shows 94% of seniors believe the 2025 COLA of 2.5% is too low, and 93% say Social Security and Medicare reform should be a top priority in Washington.
• About 73% of seniors rely on Social Security for at least half their income, and 39% depend on it entirely.
• Advocates argue that the current COLA formula (CPI-W) doesn’t reflect senior expenses and support shifting to the CPI-E, which better accounts for healthcare costs.

How are you adjusting to rising costs? Have you found creative ways to stretch your benefits or cut expenses? What changes would you like to see in how COLAs are calculated? Share your story in the comments—your insight may help someone else feel less alone and more empowered.

 

[Maxineb]

SS cola raises aren’t made to keep up with inflation. During Obama we had very small ones and I think one year we got nothing. Did anyone complain? No… it’s just the way it goes. During Biden we got that one big one but it hardly covered that almost 40% inflation. Definitely helped bit not enough.

I hardly think there’s nothing to worry about right now. Idk who your source is but it’s another “economic guru” with an opinion. Numbers don’t doc me out til October and we start seeing hints around August end. So 3.5 months to go.

Bank interest rates are still high on CDs ….. when they come down then the rest falls into place. 2.4 to 2.5 is not a drastic change ……. We’re still unraveling the inflation from the predecessor . Inflation under Carter too another big hike .. for me once inflation rises it doesn’t EVER go lower . So it doesn’t matter what I’ll get . . Better than nothing !

 

[Maxineb]

SS cola raises aren’t made to keep up with inflation. During Obama we had very small ones and I think one year we got nothing. Did anyone complain? No… it’s just the way it goes. During Biden we got that one big one but it hardly covered that almost 40% inflation. Definitely helped but not enough.

I hardly think there’s nothing to worry about right now. Idk who your source is but it’s another “economic guru” with an opinion. Numbers don’t don’t come out til October and we start seeing hints around August end. So 3.5 months to go.

Bank interest rates are still high on CDs ….. when they come down then the rest falls into place. 2.4 to 2.5 is not a drastic change ……. We’re still unraveling the inflation from the predecessor . Inflation under Carter too another big hike .. for me once inflation rises it doesn’t EVER go lower . So it doesn’t matter what I’ll get . . Better than nothing !

 

[violetmoon]

For several years we had NO increase so any is better than NONE!

 

[Patty]

First, why do they not use the actual increases in cost of living to calculate the COLA? Second, what will the Congressmen get in raises and hidden expense raises? They will never tell us. Marine Bob

 

[JesusFIRST777*]

Last year I didn’t see an increase in my SS monthly check, even with cola’s help…My monthly SS check deceased by a few dollars. Due to Medicare’s increase. So unless cola comes up with a better percentage this year, the amount I receive monthly will probably decrease again. Because, I am sure Medicare’s cost will increase, along with the prices of everything else. And yes this is my only income.

 

[Veronica E.]

SS cola raises aren’t made to keep up with inflation. During Obama we had very small ones and I think one year we got nothing. Did anyone complain? No… it’s just the way it goes. During Biden we got that one big one but it hardly covered that almost 40% inflation. Definitely helped bit not enough.

I hardly think there’s nothing to worry about right now. Idk who your source is but it’s another “economic guru” with an opinion. Numbers don’t doc me out til October and we start seeing hints around August end. So 3.5 months to go.

Bank interest rates are still high on CDs ….. when they come down then the rest falls into place. 2.4 to 2.5 is not a drastic change ……. We’re still unraveling the inflation from the predecessor . Inflation under Carter too another big hike .. for me once inflation rises it doesn’t EVER go lower . So it doesn’t matter what I’ll get . . Better than nothing !

Thanks for sharing— we totally hear you. There's definitely a lot still up in the air, and you’re right that the official numbers won’t come in until later this year. These early estimates aren’t perfect, but we like to keep readers in the loop as things develop, especially since even small changes can make a difference for folks on fixed incomes.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Maxineb. Glad you jumped into the conversation!

 

[Veronica E.]

For several years we had NO increase so any is better than NONE!

Absolutely. Every bit helps, and we appreciate you weighing in, Violetmoon!

 

[Veronica E.]

First, why do they not use the actual increases in cost of living to calculate the COLA? Second, what will the Congressmen get in raises and hidden expense raises? They will never tell us. Marine Bob

Great questions, Marine Bob. A lot of folks have raised similar concerns about how COLAs are calculated. Many advocates believe switching to a formula that reflects senior spending, like the CPI-E, would be more accurate—especially with rising healthcare costs.

As for raises in Congress, you're right. It’s often hard to track the full picture with salaries and expenses. Transparency matters, and it’s something many people feel strongly about. Appreciate you bringing this up!

 

[Veronica E.]

Last year I didn’t see an increase in my SS monthly check, even with cola’s help…My monthly SS check deceased by a few dollars. Due to Medicare’s increase. So unless cola comes up with a better percentage this year, the amount I receive monthly will probably decrease again. Because, I am sure Medicare’s cost will increase, along with the prices of everything else. And yes this is my only income.

Thanks for sharing your experience, JesusFIRST777*. You're not alone. Many people didn’t feel much of a difference in their checks last year because Medicare premiums went up at the same time. It’s frustrating when the COLA increase gets offset like that, especially when Social Security is your only income.

I hope this year’s adjustment brings more meaningful relief. We at The GrayVine appreciate you speaking up!

 

[Routeman]

As bad as I hate to receive less we need to remember our children and grandchildren.

 

[Veronica E.]

As bad as I hate to receive less we need to remember our children and grandchildren.

That’s such a thoughtful perspective, @Routeman. It’s not easy to make do with less, but thinking about the next generation really puts things in perspective!